Hello everyone,
After more than seven years with a little existence, this blog now reaches a 500 -published teacher. In this post, we will discuss the topic that tends to generate more enthusiastic: new commercial aircraft variables or program developments.
Unfortunately, Boepar Engine’s obstacles, the Covpid-19, and the SUBPAR Engine reliability means that launching a new clean program in reality may be far from seven years. There were possibilities at the time of the launch of the new Central aircraft program in Boeing. In those seven years, the only variables launched were the A321 XLR, A350F and 777-8F.
Now we look at the realistic expectations of the launch along three dimensions: the new variables of the current platforms, a new program for one corridor, and a new dual program.
We forget to run the alternative or program in the short term
There are two main reasons that make the launch of new variables or programs unlikely before the end of this contract.
Supply chains in a state of chaos
The first is the supply chain problems. The Covid-19s was a severe stress throughout the entire commercial space supply chain. The original equipment manufacturers and suppliers had to lay off many employees and lost some of the most experienced employees in this process. Since then, they have struggled to restore the efficiency of prenatal production.
The strains are currently concentrated in three main points: engine delivery operations, spiritual air systems (which have suffered from a double blow to the repeated Boeing crisis while they are in a harsh financial and operational position), and the business degree seats for dual aircraft.
In addition to returning most of the assembly lines (A330, 737, 777, 787) on prenatal production levels, Airbus wants to expand the production of A220, A320 and A350 higher than before. Construction is criticism and intensive resources for original equipment manufacturers and the entire supply chains. Until OEMS is close to achieving their production goals, supply chains will not have a display of frequency or criticism to think about a new program. The best scenario to achieve this is 2027, but 2028-29 is more realistic.
Airbus, Boeing and Embraer remain missing (and lower review) delivery goals. We know that the situation will be better as soon as they can achieve the end of the year without descending reviews.
They are engines (stupid!)
The second number is the durability of the engine. In addition to delivery delays, all new generation engines had a subpar time on the wing. The most intense is E-Jet E2 / A220 / A320neo GTF and ROYCE TRENT 1000 / TRENT 7000 / TRENT XWB 97. Genx had Dreamliner better durability but had a share of reliability accidents. It was the least problem with TRENT XWN 84 from A350-900. 1A/1B jump somewhere in the middle.
Until the engine’s durability improves to the previous generation level, forget any OEM customer (airline or chest) running on board a clean paper plane program with new power generation stores. How can one expect a new generation that will push the envelope more permanent if it is not the current generation?
Instead engine problems, most likely
The newly weighted alternative to be launched is the extended A220, initially called A220-500. Airbus CEO Airospace has announced that it was the issue of the time to launch the variable. It might happen very quickly.
Airbus acknowledged that the A220 launch is extended outside the table until the PRTT & Whitney improves the durability of the GTF. The OEM engine will not be able to focus on the A220 until it sorted problems in its most important program, A320neo. PRTT & Whitney will have its hands full on A320neo for at least two years.
The second aspect is the lack of profitability of the A220 program. Airbus was forced to pump money repeatedly into the A220 program with its partner, the government of Quebec. Until Airbus stops losing money in the A220 program, it is difficult to imagine the release of an extended variable. It should also be noted that the program has struggled to increase production. The goal of producing 14 A220s per month by the end of next year is unrealistic (delivery operations 2024 were less than half of this rate).
Another one is the most inaccurate but it is likely to be more harmful. More than half of the A220 request book with US agents. The current US administration plans to impose a tariff on imports of the United States, including those in Canada. It is not yet clear what will be long -term, but Airbus is unlikely to make any decisions until things settled. If the A220 becomes not for sale in the United States, the market loss may make a non -economic extended variable.
Other possible launch operations
Other possible launch operations are less likely, at least in this contract.
Embraer from E175-E2 is frozen unless the domain conditions are relaxed in the United States and allowed the alternative to be operated by regional transport companies.
It is possible to launch the extended A350 and 777X variables, but the engine durability needs to improve, and Boeing first needs to ratify 777-9 and 777-8F.
A330NEO and 787 Factory Sharepter are also possible, but less likely. Economics of such new shipping will be a challenge against the transfer of A330Ceos much cheaper. Once the double delivery processes increase, the availability of A330CEOS for shipping transfers will significantly improve.
The maximum platform of 737 has been made for any new launch. A mixture of the dominant market share and a small wing makes the release of the A321neo extension unlikely. This would create more problem for Airbus more than anything else.
The engines will launch new programs
The CEO of the new Boeing company emphasized the ambition to launch a new clean platelet program as soon as OEM overcomes its main obstacles to increasing production and ratification of the four variables on board the plane (737-7, 737-10, 777-9, and 777-8f). Embraer was also studying a new program.
Do not expect any launch until it becomes a new generation of mature engines enough to launch it. This is in addition to fixing the durability of the current offer, as we mentioned earlier in this post. It is unlikely to be the possible gains for a new engine with the current structure (GTF 2.0, ROYCE ULTRAFRAN) more than 10-12 % compared to the current generation. The most radical open roundabout (CFM) will increase to high teenagers.
More to acquire one new reformer program
The launch of a clean paper program is likely to be in the large individual corridor category. This is because, in addition to the engine gains, the improvement of potential fuel burning is higher. The A320 and 737 platforms are not widely used vehicles. The complex wing with a width to the higher height would give a few percentage points to improve fuel burning.
A new program for one corridor is likely to provide fuel burning gains in the middle to the high percentage of the percentage of teenagers. This is without considering more than the ambitious or mixed structure, which can provide gains of up to 20 % in the best scenarios. The Great A321neo request book explains that airlines are also shocked by the largest monochrome aircraft.
A new twin program is not anywhere on the horizon
A new dual -corridor program is likely to serve as a re -engineering of Dreamliner or A350, with possible gains in low teenagers. The most ambitious structures, such as the open fan or the extended wings, will not work on larger planes due to the airport’s infrastructure restrictions. The most likely innovation is the 777X folding suite combinations, which improve the width rate in the wing and fit within the 65 -meter dual dual gates.
The other reason is that the production of one extended aircraft is more profitable than those in that extended. Boeing still has not recovered the costs of developing Dreamliner, while the A350 production is not yet profitable. Wide and profitable aircraft production is more challenging than expected.
The epidemic and struggle for increased production means that it will not earn an Airbus or Boeing money that produces a dual plane until the end of this decade. These challenges were five years late, if not 10 years, the point where double programs will be profitable for both OEMS.
conclusion
This blog acknowledges that the tone of this post is not the most optimistic, but it aims to be realistic. Until the production of aircraft and their delivery to the levels of prenatal and improved the durability of the engine, the discussion of the new programs is just a modern.
We need to recognize another threat: high geopolitical and commercial tensions between countries are not at all favorable to launch the main (and high) aircraft program. If China, the European Union and the United States have stopped each other to produce and deliver commercial aircraft, it will be difficult to build work cases due to possible smaller markets and high production costs.
The Great War will reduce travel demand and transfer resources from commercial aircraft. Any new program will be turned off. We all hope that this is not achieved.
Finally, expect a fewer blog posts to go forward. The main reason is that with most complete production lines for at least half a decade (the only exceptions are the least popular A220 and A330Neo), airlines will set less orders. There is simply less to talk about it.