Hello everyone,
Last year, this blog wrote leaflets on a scale to track how full Airbus and Boeing Production lines. The conclusion was that the only programs with deliberate deliveries before the end of the contract are the A220, A330 and B767.
With another year of supply chain disorders and delaying certificates, how did these measures evolve?
An increase in production to the right
We use the same methodology as in previous publications, namely:
- Take all the distinguished requests
- Suppose future production rates by program, with a rise to a long -term rate.
- After the amendment of the outstanding stock, calculate a date in which all requests are fulfilled.
We assume an inventory from 2024-12-31 of 92 737 Maxes, 28 777xs and 26 787s for each Planespotters.net Data.
We also offer the following basic monthly production rate assumptions after OEM directed Airbus:
| program | A220 | A320 | A330 | A350 |
| 2025 | 9 | 60 | 4 | 6 |
| 2026 | 12 | 70 | 4 | 9 |
| 2027 | 14 | 75 | 4 | 10 |
| 2028 | 14 | 75 | 4 | 11 |
| Long -term | 14 | 75 | 4 | 12 |
Boeing:
| program | B737 | B767 | B777 | B787 |
| 2025 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 2026 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 2027 | 50 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 2028 | 50 | us | 5 | 10 |
| Long -term | 50 | us | 5 | 10 |
We stop making assumptions for the 767 program at the end of 2027 when the factory production stops 767-300F.
Under an alternative scenario (and more logical in the opinion of this blog), we assume that the annual monthly production will be directed in five units of the A320, B737 and two programs for all other programs. Monthly production rates 2025 are reviewed on A220 and A320 to 8 and 55, respectively.
I left 2020 production openings in 2020s
The table is summarized below the year and month until the different production lines are filled with two assumptions by OEM (we assume 2027-12 to the end of the B767-300F production).
| assumption | A220 | A320 | A330 | A350 |
| Airbus | 2028-07 | 2033-04 | 2029-10 | 2030-11 |
| substitute | 2028-12 | 2032-08 | 2029-10 | 2030-12 |
| assumption | B737 | B767 | B777 | B787 |
| Boeing | 2033-05 | 2027-12 | 2034-02 | 2032-02 |
| substitute | 2033-10 | 2027-12 | 2034-02 | 2032-04 |
The only programs containing a noticeable number of production openings that left this contract are the A220 and A330. If there are A350 production openings, it should be a handful at best. Looking at what is mentioned above, you are not surprised by the presence of a lot of aircraft orders this year compared to its previous orders. The only programs that may exceed performance compared to previous years are the A220 and A330.
More high Boeing production rate in the pipeline
Delivery schedules for 777X are very long (extending to the middle of the next decade), given the frequent entry into the service delay. This blog will not be surprised if Boeing declares a (temporary) production rate of 777/777X above 5 per month once it enters the service. Up to seven monthly it appears reasonable until the availability of new delivery openings to two to three years.
Once Boeing sorted B737 production problems, and confirms that the long-term production rate is from 737-10, it is possible that production rates will rise in the long term from 50 a month. Immediately before Max grounding, Boeing was producing 57 737s per month. It has also announced a new 737 Max final collection line in Evere.
All this (clearly) assumes that the geopolitical environment remains relatively benign without a major event that crushes the demand for new aircraft.