Hello everyone,
The Trump administration announced this week a new tariff for imports in the United States. The comprehensive customs tariff has already been implemented, and that of the country will become effective in the coming days.
The first -class effects will come quickly: The increase in imports to the United States of America will make airlines more expensive to buy and maintain their aircraft. Consumer commodities with primary defense and collapsed stock market will reduce consumers to reduce estimated spending, with airlines traveling among those affected. This blog is already Books published Last year, the topic is partially addressed.
Although the above represents a problem clearly for stakeholders in commercial aviation, the second arrangement effects are more important in the long run. Acknowledging that it is a challenge and speculation, which will lead the most serious problems below the line. The goal of this post is to tell some of them.
Fragile supply chains more
Airbus, Boeing and their first -class suppliers will face financial disturbances in the current situation. However, their access to financing at reasonable prices should be allowed to expand any short -term strikes. It is not the same for their most fragile and smaller suppliers. Knowing that millions of parts go to a plane, it is possible to push two suppliers already in a weak financial form to the edge of the abyss.
The movement of spiritual air systems between Airbus and Boeing may become more complex. The transaction assessments were agreed during the pre -tariff management) before the customs tariff). The implementation of the deal is likely to be delayed.
Most unwanted bureaucratic disorder
Paying customs duties hurts me financially. However, this is only part of the story. Since it was implemented in a short notice, dealing with bureaucracy is at least a problem. and Aviation Week The article stated that American customs and border protection do not know how to apply definitions in some cases due to confusing rules. As a result, the imports of some commercial aircraft parts stopped to the United States.
Universal commercial airline supplies chains by nature. Supreme management teams will spend significant resources in dealing with bureaucracy to maintain business. These resources can be directed towards increasing production or dealing with current issues. Expect more delay with delivery and production population.
Until stability returns, forget any long -term plans
Another problem with the current environment is uncertainty. The Trump administration was arbitrarily changing the rules in a short notice. Companies that have programs that can last for half a century, such as commercial aircraft, need to settle for investment and planning for the future.
This blog believes that unless the current administration has not changed its approach and becomes predictable, there will be no new variables for aircraft launched by Airbus or Boeing, not to mention a clean paper program. The strike will also be delayed when their supply chains are ready for a clean paper program.
Certainly, Airbus and Boeing will reduce funding for their long -term projects, especially clean sheet programs. Airbus’s timeline to enter the A320 family replacement service in the late 1930s to the early 1940s. A similar story can be said to Boeing.
Economic decisions are below optimum for airline fleet plans
The new definitions may lead airlines to cancel or delay the delivery of some requests. Even if this does not happen, he expected governments to push OEM to choose another.
Unless the situation changes significantly, it is unlikely that Chinese or European transport companies will put new Boeing orders. The United States government may also rule its “strong arm” to buy Boeing aircraft. It is likely to make governments that reach a high American tariff that is difficult for their transport companies to order Boeing aircraft.
conclusion
The sharp change in the global trade system is very difficult for an industry like commercial aviation.
There is only one silver lining: the requests books are full of all Airbus and Boeing programs (except A220 and A330Neo) until the end of the contract. We hope it will leave this time until the current chaos stabilizes and cold heads prevail. Corporates are flexible and can adapt to almost any challenge. However, the new system will not work until stability and ability to predict.